Saturday 18 February 2012

Oscars 2012 Predictions

OSCARS 2012

So we're back, and not exactly, but there's some that are better than others. This year in film has been pretty turbulent, but overall, I've really enjoyed the quality and creativity that has been expressed in the cinema. Excitingly, I got to go to many TIFF (Toronto International Film Festival) screenings  which was amazing-Tilda Swinton is a GODDESS, btw-and even though I was by myself the entire time, it really helps in finding a decent seat when you don't have to rely on finding a pair seated together. Forever alone or challenge accepted? In the case of a film festival, I'll gladly choose the former.

(I wanted to wait to do this until after I finished writing the rest of my reviews for the nominated features, but sadly, didn't have time, and was kind of gently prodded into this by my friends who I normally inundate with Oscar emails every year who were teasing me about going this long without saying my piece.)

And of course there have been a terrible amount of snubs this year-the aforementioned Tilda Swinton (We Need To Talk About Kevin), Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Michael Fassbender (Shame), to name just a few. It's sad, but sometimes expected, and probably why I've been somewhat lax in my predictions this year because frankly, it just makes me doubt the Academy and their worth. So I probably have Batter Oscar Fan Syndrome. Yup. That was crass, I admit it. But accurate.


BEST PICTURE

The Artist - Thomas Langmann, Producer 
The Descendants - Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Producers 
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close - Scott Rudin, Producer
The Help - Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, Producers
Hugo - Graham King and Martin Scorsese, Producers 
Midnight in Paris - Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, Producers 
Moneyball - Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, Producers
The Tree of Life - Nominees to be determined 
War Horse - Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers

Who Will Win: The Artist
Who I Want To Win: The Artist
Awwww yeah, I know it. Seriously, in my quest to finish off watching all those nominated in this category, The Artist was probably the most enjoyable and deserving out of the lot of them (NB: still haven't seen The Tree of Life, sorry). In no way did this silent, black and white film in this day and age feel like a gimmick when really, it should have been. It followed all the genre patterns, and I loved it all the more for it-a real throwback to those silent film stars back in the 20s and 30s and all the troubles that those dreaded "talkies" conjured up. It was quaint without being silly and silly without being stupid, and I loved it.


DIRECTING

The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius
The Descendants, Alexander Payne
Hugo, Martin Scorsese
Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen
The Tree of Life, Terrence Malick

Who Will Win: Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Who I Want To Win: Michel Jazanavicius, The Artist
I'm not sure about this one, to be honest, and while Directing and Feature typically win hand in hand, there have always been those years where they break apart and go their own ways (Gladiator and Stephen Soderberg for Traffic; Crash and Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain), and while Hollywood and America in general has a raging hard on for what Hazanavicius created, they're also raving about George Clooney in The Descendants and how Alexander Payne, typically known for his acerbic and comically black films, has created this film about a man and his daughters while his wife is stuck in the refrigerated state of coma. So it's a toss up, but this is just the vibe I'm getting.


I'm talkin' 'bout good vibrations...


ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Demián Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Who Will Win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Who I Want To Win: Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Sorry George, but Jean is going to take this all the way back home to France (I'll come too!). Dujardin is being hailed as amazing because, again, acting in a silent movie without being over the top and without an overwhelming use of speech cards? That takes skill. And while I admire that, I really, really want Gary Oldman to win. Such an underrated actor in his own rite, and so very often undervalued. How many people really know him beyond Christopher Nolan's Batman films? The thing is, you say you don't, but you do-you just never recognise him. In Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Oldman's turn as George Smiley is so quiet, so understated, it would be so easy to give more credit to those acting around him-but much like Mark Walhberg acting next to Christian Bale in The Fighter last year, if it weren't for Oldman the film would be no where as good as it is now. So I want him to win. A lot.


ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Who Will Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Who I Want To Win: Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Oh, please please please, let it be Kenneth. While I will admit that Plummer had a wonderful turn as a geriatric man stumbling out of the closet to his quirky son, I fear that Branagh will be overlooked as yet another imitation role as Sir Lawrence Olivier. While the film Olivier and Monroe made in the end was boring and stilted, MWWM was a lovely look behind the fictionalised scenes of what was happening while the blonde bombshell was going through a rather difficult time of her life (miscarriages, emotionally unstable, weight fluctuations), and Branagh, much like Gary Oldman, tends to be so good in all of his roles that we don't give him as much credit for his obvious talent as he deserves, waiting for a breakout performance instead. Sadness.

So. Many. Emotions.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Who Will Win: Viola Davis, The Help
Who I Want To Win: Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
 I've said it before, and I'll say it now-Meryl Streep needs her own category in awards shows, because frankly, no one tends to stand a chance against her. Viola Davis, on the other hand, sadly, has the race card in hand-don't let that take away from the fact that her performance in The Help was nothing short of dazzling, but it's true-and yet again, another black woman will win the award for playing the 'mammy' role. It's a sad state of affairs, really. That said, Streep let me down in The Iron Lady-yes, I get that Thatcher was human, but I'd be voting for you if you were to expose her terrible policies that affected so many in Britain and still make me feel sympathy for her by the time the credits roll. The Iron Lady was really just the story of an old lady who misses her dead husband (not a spoiler) On the OTHER hand, Glenn Close is my pick because she is the legitimate dark horse of the pack-her role as Albert Nobbs, a woman in Ireland cross dressing as a man to actually be able to earn a living was quietly enthralling and brought actual tears to my eyes. Heat breaking and unapologetic and just so much strength behind that performance makes me pick Close.


ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help

Who Will Win: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Who I Want To Win: Melissa McCarthy, Bridemaids
Oh, indulge me, why don't you? Actors with comedic chops are rarely (see: never) recognised by the academy as they are deemed 'not serious enough' and apparently comedians will only ever win big when they're about to retire, because hey, we really do appreciate all they did for the world of comedy, but come on-not one scene where it's revealed they has cancer the entire time while doing their best to make us laugh? We say no! Octavia Spencer, on the other hand, will win, but I feel for the wrong reasons. While Davis will win (rightly) for her version of 'mammy', Spencer will win because of her 'sassy' spin on the generic role made for black women. To me, she wasn't in the film nearly enough to be able to garner a supporting nod. Her interactions with Chastain (a fellow nominee) in the film were her best I felt, but even then...her acting was great, but it's just not doing it for me.


Pictured: Gillian on Oscar night, 2012 (replace with wine)


WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

The Descendants - Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash
Hugo - Screenplay by John Logan
The Ides of March - Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon
Moneyball - Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin; Story by Stan Chervin
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Screenplay by Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan

Who Will Win: Moneyball
Who I Want To Win: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
While I can admit that I haven't read the source material for any of these films, I can admit that much like Hollywood has for The Artist, I obviously have some sort of hard on for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. Mainly because I have read quite a few John le Carre books, and frankly...even to my adapting-into-film mind, they are difficult to translate well. That said, Moneyball will probably take the cake, it being about baseball and all that fun American Apple Pie stuff (sorry).


WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY) 

The Artist - Written by Michel Hazanavicius
Bridesmaids - Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
Margin Call - Written by J.C. Chandor
Midnight in Paris - Written by Woody Allen
A Separation - Written by Asghar Farhadi

Who Will Win: Midnight in Paris
Who I Want To Win: Bridesmaids
Again, indulge me. I loved Bridesmaids, and sadly, because it's the only female driven comedy done well, I really, really want it to win. But it won't. I should have a new category after 'Who I Want To Win' called 'Are You There God? It's Me, Gillian' for these. Oooh, next year...that said, I really, really enjoyed Midnight in Paris, and maybe it's because other recent Allen films haven't exactly been all that great (so MiP looks amazing by comparison), but I feel like this one could get it. That said, I have a feeling A Separation will swoop in and surprise us all. A+ film, that.


I wish I had a rap for this.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

A Cat in Paris, Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli
Chico & Rita, Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal
Kung Fu Panda 2, Jennifer Yuh Nelson
Puss in Boots, Chris Miller
Rango, Gore Verbinski

Who Will Win: Rango
Who I Want To Win: Rango
 Ok, so I've only seen two of the lot, but Rango was probably one of the better animated films I've seen in a long time. Other than Toy Story 3. Which now I want to watch again because apparently I'm masochistic and want to sob about toys going into the incinerator.


CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Artist, Guillaume Schiffman
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Jeff Cronenweth
Hugo, Robert Richardson
The Tree of Life, Emmanuel Lubezki
War Horse, Janusz Kaminski

Who Will Win: The Artist
Who I Want To Win: War Horse 
 Oh my god, I know-terrible film, but the cinematography was. so. freakin'. beautiful. I couldn't get over it when I was watching it and ignoring the story about the boring horse named Joey running around war torn Europe. I have a sneaking suspicion that The Artist will snag the award, but War Horse...say what you (and I) like about it, it was a beautifully shot film.


Neeeiiiggghhhhh!

DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)

Hell and Back Again, Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front, Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky
Pina, Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel
Undefeated, TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Richard Middlemas

Who Will Win: Pina
Who I Want To Win: PINA!!!!!
Ok, so Pina probably won't actually win-I admit, this is the only film I've seen in this group (I was so...so close to seeing If A Tree Falls...soclose), but it was the best documentary I've seen in recent memory. Beautifully shot, and even in 3D (which I detest) I was at the point where I wanted to endure the headache just a little longer for more of this fascinating documentary. I kinda really do feel like Pina can go all the way, and I really, really hope it does.


MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

"Man or Muppet", The Muppets - Music and Lyrics by Bret McKenzie
"Real in Rio", Rio - Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown; Lyrics by Siedah Garrett

Who Will Win: "Man or Muppet"
Who I Want To Win: "Man or Muppet"
Puh-lease. Despite MoM not even being the strongest song in the film, (my favourites were "Life's A Happy Song" and "Me Party"), MoM is going to win hands down. In fact, I've decided to quickly listen to Real in Rio again just to check, and yes, I remain correct in my assessment. Sorry, Rio.


We return you to your irregularly scheduled film reviews...


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